Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 33.106113 35.694828 38.529057 41.889671 45.802543 50.262042 55.799931
2025-09-28 29.457675 32.779950 36.636119 41.526934 47.695721 55.415940 66.164703
2025-10-05 28.579491 32.593293 37.474075 44.023898 52.894860 65.037148 84.103514
2025-10-12 26.771441 30.997581 36.289083 43.656548 54.132860 69.436682 95.865851
2025-10-19 25.664066 30.128743 35.872011 44.153550 56.509542 75.821607 112.935274
2025-10-26 25.058848 29.822711 36.118931 45.531450 60.316366 85.260772 139.992038
2025-11-02 24.151083 29.028084 35.602907 45.702085 62.213530 91.873700 165.229594
2025-11-09 22.822536 27.572862 34.043851 44.128266 60.979818 92.345656 175.796901
2025-11-16 21.625722 26.231701 32.557201 42.527928 59.483546 91.976355 184.056957
2025-11-23 21.233868 25.976465 32.603715 43.311809 62.241463 101.030211 229.730995
2025-11-30 20.635910 25.395817 32.129274 43.203826 63.348066 106.808499 271.982227
2025-12-07 19.909003 24.596395 31.280622 42.404050 63.029849 109.154118 303.591178
2025-12-14 18.775092 23.275090 29.737866 40.606343 61.113847 108.530607 330.440182
2025-12-21 18.075091 22.551978 29.068464 40.249543 62.076041 116.070492 437.813907
2025-12-28 18.068299 22.823506 29.927519 42.611861 69.169855 145.592030 1159.207557
2026-01-04 17.478230 22.194338 29.319059 42.264703 70.250006 157.061418 2540.973334
2026-01-11 17.104883 21.866891 29.165375 42.734077 73.357555 179.240298 NaN
2026-01-18 16.916693 21.805966 29.434596 44.034114 78.901721 220.027643 NaN
2026-01-25 16.535679 21.426392 29.144455 44.194987 81.530437 251.468879 NaN
2026-02-01 15.898330 20.621233 28.090838 42.710203 79.249785 249.700687 NaN
2026-02-08 15.294021 19.847879 27.058447 41.198057 76.679576 244.393684 NaN
2026-02-15 15.105641 19.718207 27.115899 41.939036 80.864969 296.973532 NaN
2026-02-22 14.792123 19.377208 26.788289 41.836997 82.508873 335.385902 NaN